With the final major preps for the Breeders' Cup today (not sure how much a factor tomorrow's Spinster participants will be in the Distaff other then I'm a Chatterbox), I thought that I would do a prediction on some (not all though) of the races. I'm not going to be doing the Sprints (all 3 of them), Juvenile (all four) and the Dirt Mile because these seem to be the races where horses are cross-entered the most. Also they are the races where I currently lack the most knowledge. Please note these are just my predictions, I'm not saying these will be my picks for the races when it comes time for the draw. For now though, here who I think could win the Breeders' Cup.
Mile: Tepin- despite her loss today (where Photo Call did go gate to wire), she is going to go into the BC still being the horse to beat. Tourist, and Ironicus possibly the two best male milers in the US could be a challenge, but she could also face a challenge from Miss Temple City who swept the two Keeneland mile races as a way to avoid Tepin. These two girls who apparently became friends earlier this year when they where training in Europe to try to beat them (both did pretty well with Tepin winning and Miss Temple City running 4th in their races respectively). Also possible... her big brother Vyjack who won today at Santa Anita.
Turf: Flintshire- What happened last week, cross a line thorough it. That being said, he is going to be facing some very tough company from the Europeans (which may include last year's Champ and this year's Arc winner Found), plus the West Coasters. However, if we see another bad race from him then it is pretty certain that he peaked against weaker company.
F/M Turf: Lady Eli/Euro- You can never count out the Europeans of this race as they are always very tough. That being said since 2006 they have only won 3 times. Chad Brown has won 3 of the last 4 and he might actually have the best of them this year with Lady Eli. Yeah she lost her comeback race from laminatis, but she showed that the deadly hoof disease didn't leave her without her fight as she won the Flower Bowl today. She's already won a BC race (Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2014), and honestly the distance females haven't been the best this year compared to the distance milers (aka Tepin and Miss Temple City).
Distaff: Songbird/Beholder/Forever Unbridled/Stellar Wind- I'm going to be honest here, my heart is with Beholder. It may seem that at 6 she has finally lost a step, which is not surpassing, however if she is healthy the BC is where she likes to shine. Songbird is by far the top 3yo regardless of sex, but she has run slower then the older girls. Stellar Wind is the horse of the moment when it comes to this division, but her sire's record in the Breeders' Cup is not good. This leaves us with Forever Unbridled whose dam is a KY Oaks winner, but has done better as a mother (her similarly named big sister Unbridled Forever is also a G1 winner). The question will be can she hang with the California Girls? I'm not sure.
Classic: California Chrome/Arrogate- That's right Chromies, I may dislike Chrome (see my comments on Twitter) but I'm not an idiot to know that he is the top older male (there I said it). Still... I'm going to try to beat him, and guess what it's not going to be with Hard Aces. Arrogate could be the best 3yo in what is a really pathetic group. Nyquist has had his ups (Spring) and Downs (Preakness to now), Exaggerator seems to only be able to win on wet tracks, Creator is retired, Connect is prob a year early so by default he seems to be it. The biggest reason though is that his trainer has won the last two Classics. It's going to be an uphill climb for him though if Chrome, Frosted, Effinex (who was second in the JCGC today and defending Classic runner up), stablemates Hoppertunity (JCGC winner) and Dortmund, and Shaman Ghost all show up.
No comments:
Post a Comment