How where these rankings figured on strength of schedule, who the Older Male Champ was that year (unless they are) and 3yo Male Champ (unless they are). The reason why is that over the years those two divisions that have had the most HOY champs. Also note is I'm including 1995. With that here we go:
17. Favorite Trick (1997): The first 2yo to win the HOY since Secretariat also might have had the best luck. In his HOY year he did defeat Coronado's Quest, Cape Town, Time Limit and Grand Slam, but the horse who was the Champion Older Male that year Skip Away, did not win until May (Mass Cap) and went on a 3 race losing streak before winning his Classic prep and then the Classic. It also didn't help both Touch Gold and Behrens, two horses that where expected to challenge Skippy floundered in the race. Even though 3yo Champ Silver Charm had won the Derby and Preakness before coming up short in the Belmont, he missed the Fall season and finished the year with a runner up finish in the Malibu (the winner was an Argentina, bred foaled on Southern Hemisphere time).
Either way, he joined a very select company of two years to win HOY honors in both the non Eclipse and Eclipse eras.
16. Charismatic (1999): In a way he is a bit of an enigma, in the fact that his record is possibly the weakest of HOY's since 1996, but I put him over Favorite Trick based on the fact that he was 3. There are a number of factors to why he won though. It may have to do with the fact he had a great story behind him (broke his maiden in a claimer, ran in a claimer in his second start as a 3yo, didn't win a stakes race until the Lexington which was before his Derby win), or the fact that Chris Antley saved his life by holding up his leg after the Belmont.
That year's Older Male was Victory Gallop and he didn't run past August. The winner of the Classic was Cat Thief his stablemate who also was a 3yo and the runner up Budroyale (whose little brother will be mentioned on this list) did not have a G1 win to his name. What was likely the final factor was that Lemon Drop Kid finished out of the money in both of his starts against older males after he won the Travers.
15. Azeri (2002): Before the Eclipses started in 1971, only 5 fillies where named Horse of the Year by various horse racing publications. Before Azeri won in 2002, there where 2 fillies who took home HOY under the Eclipse banner. Yes she was undefeated, but unlike the other fillies on this list she did not face the males in her HOY season. That being said, she did Spain, Take Charge Lady and Farda Amiga that season.
What helped her was the passing of Left Bank who had stretched out from his previous years sprinting to win the Whitney. He certainly would have been one of the favorites for the Classic. The other factor that helped her was the fact that Volponi was such a longshot and the runner up Medaglia d' Oro was ineligble for the older male award since he was still 3 at the time and he would lose 3yo honors to War Emblem. (Note: Azeri would eventually face older males in the 2004 Met Mile and Classic)
Like with Favorite Trick his biggest competitor Main Sequence didn't have his first win until July. However, that was also his US debut. The Hollywood Derby win over Lexie Lou (who would be named Canada's 3yo Champion Filly and HOY) was the cherry on top to a good season.
13. Mineshaft (2003): I really hate putting him this low, but there are 2 good reasons why. The first he missed the Breeders' Cup due to injury. Secondly he lose the Stephen Foster, but that was only to by a head to a fan favorite (Perfect Drift) and finished ahead of that year's Sprint Champion Aldebaran. That being said he ran the table otherwise winning the Pimlico Special, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup (with defending champion Evening Attire in 3rd).
His closest adversary in the HOY voting Congaree did pick up some nice wins including the Hollywood Gold Cup and Cigar Mile, but suffered 4 losses including in the Classic. Meanwhile Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide didn't even finish in 3rd, that belonged to the 2yo Filly Halfbridled. However the Gutsy Gelding was named Champion 3yo Male over his nemesis (and grandfather to Pharoah) Empire Maker.
12. Havre de Grace (2011): These next two horses could be flipped flopped in the fact they have two losses on the year and you could easily draw a line through both of them. They also happen to be father and daughter. The reason why Grace here instead of her dad based off the fact that her two losses where to her arch nemesis Blind Luck in the DelCap and to Drosselmeyer in the Classic. Of the 3 fillies that went back to back to back for HOY, she is the weakest. However she in a way also won by default.
Animal Kingdom the 3yo Champion Male that year was injured, Caleb's Posse lost both the categories he was in and that year's Older Male Acclamation had ran primary on turf. At the time voters where just not ready to give a turf horse HOY for the first time since 1993 when Kotashaan won.
11. Saint Liam (2005): This is where things get interesting. Like Grace, Liam's HOY season included 2 losses and they where to worthy advisories (Rock Hard Ten and Ghostzapper). Unlike Grace though, the two HOY finalists had fantastic seasons. Not only did he have to fight off the Champion Sprinter that year the late great Lost in the Fog, but Champion 3yo Male Afleet Alex. Also his Classic stretch was fun as he was battling Flower Alley who with a win would have likely knocked Alex off the pedestal.
In the end Alex's injury and Foggy's shocking loss (to which may have been partially caused by the tumor that would be found after his death) in the Sprint along with the Classic win helped him become Horse of the Year.
10. Wise Dan (2012 and 2013): I think this placement is going to upset people more then the CC placement. To tell you the truth though, I think this is a good spot for him in the fact the only horse behind him whose in the HOF is Azeri, although both Grace and Chrome will get in there eventually. While he did suffer losses in his HOY seasons, both of them where on the main track and he really didn't lose them by much. He backed up those wins with Breeders' Cup Mile wins.
That being said the 2013 season he may have backed his way in after Game on Dude's loss in the Classic and Mucho Macho Man's win. A weak 3yo crop where Will Take Charge was top male helped. Regardless he very likely would have been a 3 time HOY honoree if it hadn't been for an injury that kept him out of the BC where he could have tied Goldikova's record of 3 straight wins.
9. Tiznow (2000): Like Liam and Grace, these next two horses need to go back to back. In fact I was going back and forth in the order I should put them in. Eventually this was the order based on the fact that it did take Tiznow a little bit longer to get going his HOY then the next horse I'm going to mention. In his defense though he did not start at 2 which is why he came on late to the scene.
What helped him to the title was the fact that 3 different horses won the TC races. The Champion Older Male that year Lemon Drop Kid was solid with Whitney, Woodward and JCGC wins, but had a DQ and finished 5th in his last two career starts (with the last being in the Classic to Tiznow).
8. Point Given (2001): Like Charismatic he did not face older due to an injury and did have a loss during his HOY season. However his lone loss was in Derby where Monarchos set the second fastest time ever for the race (only Secretariat was faster). He went on to win the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers.
So if Tiznow defended his Classic win? How the heck was he not named HOY again. Very likely due to the fact he had more losses then Point Given. In fact in two of his three losses, he was favored to win (only the Woodward he wasn't, Albert the Great was the favorite). Also he only ran in the Winter (where he did win the Big Cap) and Later Summer/Fall thus leaving the key summer months in the 3yo's favor.
7. Skip Away (1998): Even though I didn't follow horse racing until 2003, looking at the records of him and that year's Classic winner Awesome Again, it feels like that Skippy was given basically a lifetime achievement award. Now Skip had a great year with 5 G1 wins, compared to Awesome Again's 2, but the latter went undefeated and the former had a few losses.
Other then number of G1 wins was the fact that Skip went west where as AA didn't (although he did go into the Central Time Zone). What may sum my theory up best can be found in this NY Post article. It should be noted that when you take out Curlin and Cigar's Dubai earnings, Skip Away has earned more then the both of them.
6. Invasor (2006): Invasor is one of the greatest horses that I've seen since I started following horse racing. However, his HOY season will remain the biggest what if to me. Had Barbaro not had his accident, had Lava Man shown that he could travel well. Those two could have likely won the Classic and we would have said that Invasor was just a nice horse. Especially since his lone loss was in Dubai.
His duel with Bernardini down the stretch is possibly the most memorable Classic finish of the time. One owned by the younger brother who won the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, the other an Argentinian bred owned by the older brother who bought him from Uruguayan interests and had won the Triple Crown there. Neither of them where giving an inch. In the end, the older brothers horse would come out on top.
5. Zenyatta (2010): Like Skip Away this felt more like a lifetime achievement award then HOY season. Yes Z was undefeated until the Classic where she came up just short to Blame, but he had put together a fabulous season to earn Champion Older Male honors. Also beating the same fillies over and over again was getting boring. So why is she so high?
One word: Haynesfield. That is who defeated Blame in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If Blame wins the JCGC, she likely goes down as the best horse to never win HOY. The 3yo Males where lead by the 2yo champ Lookin at Lucky, but they where lacking otherwise. Most (including myself) thought she deserved it in 2008 and wanted at least a tie the next year. It wouldn't be till the year she tasted defeat (and that really wasn't her fault as Mike Smith blamed himself for her loss), where Zenyatta would take her place among the HOY winners.
4. Rachel Alexandra (2009): Possibly the most dominate campaign by a 3yo filly (outside of Ruffian) ever. 3 wins against males including one with the older boys. With that being said, if she wasn't sold to Jess Jackson this would not have happened. Rachel's previous owner/breeder was against running against the boys, and she was being pointed towards the Acorn instead. That of course changed the moment the Preakness was shaken with her inclusion.
The obvious answer to who would have been HOY had Rachel not faced the boys is easy as it would have been Zenyatta. However, Gio Ponti also some clout with wins the Woodford and Arlington Million before finishing second in his last two races (including the Classic). 3yo Champion Male Summer Bird had already tasted defeat to Rach in the Haskell, but added to his Belmont wins with the Travers and JCGC.
3. Curlin (2007 and 2008): Much like Wise Dan he deserved his first HOY, the second one was a little bit more controversial. As a 3yo, there wasn't much he had done wrong hitting the board in all of his races including winning the Preakness, JCGC and Classic, as well as coming just short in the Belmont. He beat that year's Older Male champ Lawyer Ron in the Classic as well as beating his two fellow "Big 3" members Hard Spun and Street Sense who was the first Juvenile winner to win the Derby.
As a 4yo his season started off strong with winning a prep in Dubai and the World Cup as well Stephen Foster. A runner up finish in the Man O War derailed Arc dreams, and a poor finish in the Classic to the Europeans should have cost him HOY honors. However Zenyatta for whatever reason didn't get it. Maybe it was because she did not face males and had the voters didn't want to reward her for a similar campaign to Azeri who had won in 2002. The 2008 3yo Champion was Big Brown whose history of quarter cracks caught up to him and missed the Classic.
2. Ghostzapper (2004): Possibly the most versatile HOY winner since John Henry, his season included sprint stakes wins like the Tom Fool and of course the Classic at the end of the year. His most memorable win was likely in the Woodward vs Saint Liam who would replace him as HOY the following year. Had an injury not required retirement, very likely would have been HOY again though just the way he was running and in such good form.
The 3yo Champion in 2004 was Smarty Jones. He would have been HOY had it not been for Rock Hard Ten and Eddington pressing him which allowed for Birdstone to swoop in for Belmont honors. An injury ended his career shortly afterwards.
1. Cigar (1995 and 1996): When you tie a record that includes a Triple Crown winner and put together was was possibly the most dominate year of all time, you deserve to be named HOY not once, but twice. Cigar didn't really put his career together until he moved east, but when he did oh boy did he. The streak started in 94 which included a win in the NYRA Mile (which is now named after him), 95 brought an early season win in the Donn where the previous year's HOY Holy Bull was pulled up. Also big wins during the 95 season where the Hollywood Gold Cup, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup before capping the year in style with a win the Breeders' Cup Classic. Although the 3yo Champ Thunder Gulch had won both the Derby and Belmont, it also included a 5th place finish to Cigar in the JCGC.
His 1996 season was when he tied the winning streak record that Citation had co-held (it has since been broken twice) and won the inaugural Dubai World Cup. Although the streak would end in the Pacific Classic, he would win the Woodward before a runner up finish in the JCGC and 3rd in the Classic. What likely cost 3yo Champ Skip Away HOY honors that year even though he had beaten Cigar in the JCGC was his poor Derby finish and 3rd in the Travers. Alphabet Soup the winner of the Classic had a poor Santa Anita Handicap, but was solid the rest of the year. Classic runner up Louis Quatorze won the Preakness and Jim Dandy, but finished behind Skippy in the Woodbine Million and again in the JCGC.
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