As the first round of major preps have been completed, I thought it would be a good time to give my Top 10 list for this year Kentucky Derby. Please note that it will only be a Top 10 list as I want to do quality over quantity. The number of points a certain horse has received will be next to their names.
1. Mohaymen (20 points): The Florida route has been struggling since Orb took the roses in 2013. However this 1/2 brother of New Year's Day hasn't done anything wrong since making his debut last year. 4 for 4, he won the Holy Bull last time out. He is going to be hard to beat in Fountain of Youth and/or Florida Derby.
2. Mor Spirit (24 points): When you're hot, everything keeps running smoothly. Mor Spirit won the Lewis and has a runner up finish over the Churchill surface. California could be hit or miss this year after two good years.
3. Exaggerator (16 points): The brothers Desormeaux look like they have yet another solid prospect. 4th in the Juvenile and won the Delta Jackpot. Has been working steadily at Santa Anita, but honestly could run anywhere from California to Louisiana.
4. Airoforce (10 points): Barbaro, Big Brown and Animal Kingdom have 2 things in common. They won the Derby and where just as good on turf as they where on dirt. Airoforce was a jump away from winning the Juvenile Turf and won the Kentucky Jockey Club over the Churchill surface (beating Mor Spirit). Right now is my dark horse to win this year's Derby.
5. Sunny Ridge (18 points): Hey if a gelding from New York can win the Derby, why can't a gelding from Jersey do it? Although his connections are not getting "Derby fever", he's high on this list because the next two horses who I'm going to talk about there are question marks about them. He won the Withers and is trained by the brother of a Derby winning trainer.
6. Nyquist (30 points): The Juvenile champ may have lost yet, but his last two starts where ugly... with a capital U. Don't be suprised if his sire's distance limitations finally catch up to him in his first race of the season.
7. Mo Tom (12 points): Other then sharing a sire with Nyquist, he is this low for one reason. Since 2003 when Funny Cide won the Derby, horses who have come out of Louisiana preps to do well? 1 (Hard Spun) For the females have had an easier time though. Won the Lecomte, but could face a solid group of challengers in the next two prep races.
8. Discreetness (10 points): It's going to be a battle for him this year. The AR preps where blessed with American Pharoah running in both the Rebel and the AR Derby. The question will be can he keep the good times rolling for this route. His trainer and jockey have been to the Derby once before with Archarcharch. Will that be their only chance or can this Smarty Jones winner make it two times.
9. Greenpointcrusader (14 points): I'm prob going to get some flak for putting a G1 winner this low. Yes no horse has tried the Derby distance before, but for him we actually do have some data that backs up the theory of him not getting the distance based off his well known siblings. That being said if you look two of the sibs you know that their sires where distance limited. The 3rd is a full brother who won the race he was a runner up in. My thing is can he win on a dry track. His Holy Bull finish showed that he could at least run well on it.
10. Swipe (12 points): There is one horse who has almost defeated Nyquist not once, but twice. Both in the Front Runner and in the Juvenile. The reason why he is this low is that he hasn't had a workout in at least 30 days and the rest of these runners (with the exception of Airoforce, Exaggerator and Nyquist) have one start this year under their belts.
Honorable Mention
Dolphus (0 points): Yes he is currently pointless... but come on his big sister is a legend! In all seriousness, a mile and quarter based on his sire is a stretch. That being said, his niece is one of the Oaks favorites and his nephew showed something that we already knew about the family... determination and heart. The question mark is can he show that the Lecomte scratch was a fluke.
Smokey Image (0 points): Cal bred who wins all these restricted races comes out of nowhere to steal the spotlight. Sounds familiar. However, this story has a Smarty Jones twist to it. Yep he's undefeated. While it's a question mark on how he'll do in open company, his sire and broodmare sire both won big time races at the mile and a quarter distance. Can he make his trainer the first ever woman to win the Derby? Only time will tell.
Next list will be published on February 25 which will be after both the Southwest and Risen Star will be run.
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