Thursday, June 9, 2016

Belmont Field and Pick

The Triple Crown season comes a close with Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Here is the field:

11th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, June 11th, 2016
STAKES. 1 1/2 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,500,000. Belmont S. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $600 each, to accompany the nomination, if made on or before January 16, 2016, or $6,000, if made on or before March 21, 2016. At any time prior to the closing time of entries, horses may be nominated to The BelmontStakes upon payment of a supplementary fee of $75,000 to the New York Racing Association, Inc. $15,000 to pass the entry box and $15,000 additional to start. All entrants will be required to pay entry and starting fees; but no fees, supplemental or otherwise shall be added to the purse. The purse to be divided $800,000 to the winner, $280,000 to second, $150,000 to third, $100,000 to fourth, $60,000 to fifth, $45,000 to sixth, $35,000 to seventh and $30,000 to eighth. Colts and Geldings, 126 lbs.; Fillies, 121 lbs. The winning owner will be presented with the August Belmont Memorial Cup to be retained for one year as well as a trophy for permanent possession and trophies to the winning trainer and jockey. (06:37 PM)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Governor Malibu 3 C L 126 Rosario Joel Clement Christophe
2 Destin 3 C L 126 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
3 Cherry Wine 3 C L 126 Lanerie Corey J. Romans Dale L.
4 Suddenbreakingnews 3 R L 126 Smith Mike E. Von Hemel Donnie K.
5 Stradivari 3 C L 126 Velazquez John R. Pletcher Todd A.
6 Gettysburg 3 C L 126 Lopez Paco Asmussen Steven M.
7 Seeking The Soul 3 C L 126 Geroux Florent Stewart Dallas
8 Forever D'oro 3 C L 126 Ortiz Jose L. Stewart Dallas
9 Trojan Nation 3 C L 126 Gryder Aaron T. Gallagher Patrick
10 Lani 3 C 126 Take Yutaka Matsunaga Mikio
11 Exaggerator 3 C L 126 Desormeaux Kent J. Desormeaux J. Keith
12 Brody's Cause 3 C L 126 Saez Luis Romans Dale L.
13 Creator 3 C L 126 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Asmussen Steven M.

Exaggerator is the well deserved favorite. However I think horses who skipped the Preakness or didn't run in either race have the advantage here. The reason being is that the best horse doesn't always win the race. Also Belmont tends to be a speed favoring track. This could be all that Gettysburg needs as he is a front runner. Trainer and jockey have never won the Belmont, but his sire happens to be the same as you know who and he's out of a Pulpit mare. Of course Pulpit had a great 2014 TC with his grandsons winning all 3 races. Other horses who I think have a chance include Govenor Malibu, Destin, Forever d' Oro and Lani (who seems to be calming down). 

Exaggerator with being by a Belmont winning sire has a chance, but he needs to prove that he can go two turns on a dry track (he won the Saratoga Special on a dry track, but that only 1 turn and both of his big wins going two turns have been on wet tracks). Cherry Wine will need to run a great race again to recreate his runner up Preakness finish. Stradivari, Trojan Nation,Brody's Cause, Creator, and Seeking the Soul may be up against it.

So who wins? I'm going with Gettysburg with a bit of trepadation. Exaggerator for second and Destin for third.

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